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Welcome!
I am an Economist of the Macroeconomics Department and Dean of the DIW Graduate Center. Before coming to DIW Berlin in 2009, I worked for four years in the research department of De Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch Central Bank) in Amsterdam. From 2013 to 2020, I held a professorship in Economics at the Hertie School. Since 2015, I have been a member of the European Parliament's Monetary Policy Experts Panel.
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A new version of my paper is available: Dovish Coos or Hawkish Screech? Identifying ECB Communication Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects
Abstract: This paper identifies communication shocks for the European Central Bank (ECB) and quantifies their macroeconomic effects. Using a transformer-based language model fine-tuned on ECB communications, we construct a continuous measure of policy tone from monetary policy statements (2003-2025) and isolate its unexpected component by purging its systematic dependence on macro-financial fundamentals. Bayesian VAR estimates show that hawkish communication shocks increase industrial production and inflation on impact, while generating a non-monotonic response in bond market stress: stress declines initially but rises persistently at longer horizons. These effects differ from those of monetary policy and central bank information shocks, suggesting that communication operates as an independent transmission channel.
The ECB Communication Indicator can be downloaded HERE
An older version can be found here: Dovish Coos or Hawkish Screech? From Central Bank Talk to Economic Walk (DIW Discussion Paper No. 2137)
Research Interests
Monetary Policy
International Economics
Fiscal Policy
Empirical Finance and Macroeconomics
Education
Ph.D. in Economics, 2004
Rheinische Friedrich Wilhems University Bonn
M.Sc in Economics, 2000
Rheinische Friedrich Wilhelms University Bonn
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