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Welcome!
I am an Economist of the Macroeconomics Department and (Co-)Dean of the DIW Graduate Center. Before coming to DIW Berlin in 2009, I worked for four years in the research department of De Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch Central Bank) in Amsterdam. From 2013 to 2020, I held a professorship in Economics at the Hertie School. Since 2015, I have been a member of the European Parliament's Monetary Policy Experts Panel.
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My new paper paper is available: Dovish Coos or Hawkish Screech? From Central Bank Talk to Economic Walk (DIW Discussion Paper No. 2137)
Abstract: This paper investigates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) communication in shaping market expectations and real economic outcomes. Using a large language model (LLM) fine-tuned to ECB communication, the tone of monetary policy statements from 2003 to 2025 is classified to construct a novel ECB Communication Stance Indicator. This indicator contains forward-looking information beyond standard macro-financial variables. Identified communication shocks are distinct from monetary policy and central bank information shocks. A structural Bayesian VAR reveals that hawkish communication signals favorable economic prospects, raising output, equity prices, and inflation, but also increases bond market stress. These findings highlight communication as an independent and effective tool of monetary policy, while also underscoring the importance of carefully calibrating tone to balance market expectations, and financial stability.
The ECB Communication Indicator can be downloaded HERE
Research Interests
Monetary Policy
International Economics
Fiscal Policy
Empirical Finance and Macroeconomics
Education
Ph.D. in Economics, 2004
Rheinische Friedrich Wilhems University Bonn
M.Sc in Economics, 2000
Rheinische Friedrich Wilhelms University Bonn
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